Accilent Capital Management Inc. | Market Reflections
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MARKET BOUNCE True to form there’s rarely a dull moment when it comes to the markets. Suffice it to say, the first quarter of 2019 provided little to counter the previous statement. With December 2018 being one of the worst months on record (counting from the beginning of the month to the 24th) to the market rebounding in January and February which played out as we had anticipated.   As we mentioned last quarter, when sentiment gets this dire it typically results in a snap-back that has the market come to its senses...

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2018 4th Quarter Commentary

SANTA’S LUMP OF COAL Much is made about the “Santa Claus Rally” on a yearly basis. Historically, market participants, like eagerly awaiting children on the eve of the big day, view the year end as a welcome gift. With bated breath they anticipate the returns that can come with December.   We here at Accilent also saw the year end as an inflection point where the market would find some stability and insert a floor on expectations, at least in the short-term (6-9months). That floor would lead to muted volatility and a resumption...

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2018 3rd Quarter Commentary

UNCERTAINTY LESSENING? No, USMCA isn’t the new Village People song. It’d be a hard sell to supplant the fun of YMCA with the nuanced and tedious aspects of trade, of the sort the USMCA lays bare. Whether we can now start dancing in the streets is another matter. Yes, we’ve got a new deal, as we suspected would be the case in our last quarterly. However, is it really any better for Canada, as minister Freeland and our Prime Minister would have you believe?   Ultimately, until the full details of the deal...

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2018 2nd Quarter Commentary

TO TARIFF OR NOT TO TARIFF… If this were a movie it would have to be a dark comedy. It’s the kind of funny that’s akin to the taste of mayonnaise that’s gone off as opposed to a Robin William’s stand-up routine. Kind of like, ‘hmmm that tastes funny’, mixed with a little, ‘I think I’m going to be sick’.   Enough with my feeble attempt at comedy. Geopolitical flip-flops have rendered the once stable conclusions, derived from long-standing generally accepted economic analysis, inert. Analytical conventions that would seldom be questioned, like the...

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2018 1st Quarter Commentary

TO TRADE OR NOT TO TRADE: How are your stomachs after this quarter?  I’m sure the last three months have provided some queasy moments.  Observing the seemingly non-sensical up and down of equity markets can lend to a reliance on antacids.  As each of you have heard me say before: forecasting the markets is much like forecasting the weather but with the opposite relationship as it pertains to time and probability of outcome.   To illustrate this point, turning on the daily news one can observe that meteorologists demonstrate a high success rate...

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2017 4th Quarter Commentary

TOUGHING IT OUT: We enjoy a lot of advantages living in Canada. Beautiful landscapes, no political or geo-political issues that threaten us specifically, generally a free society to go about our business and carve out a future, and four seasons that would make many around the world envious of the opportunities afforded to those who are inclined to enjoy the outdoors. There’s always something to ruin a good party though - as the adage says, ‘with some good, a little bad’. The Canadian markets in 2017 seem to be that “bad”,...

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Accilent Investment Superhero

2017 3rd Quarter Commentary: Up, Up, and Which Way?

The economy and the market are flexing – but which factors are ‘Capes’, and which are the ‘Kryptonite’?   DOLDRUMS TO DARLING?   As a kid, back in the late 70s and into the early 80s, I remember reading comics of my favorite superheroes. I wasn’t a fan of the Superman types of stories where the protagonist was inherently gifted with superhuman abilities but more the Spiderman, Batman or Ghost Riders that had to come by their powers another way. There was something about the “Ordinary Joe” who had an impactful event happen to...

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2017 1st Quarter Commentary: Is It Noisy, or Is It Just Me?

Mark Taucar talks Market Noise, Charts, and Sound Investing   Been watching much news lately? What with the new Trump administration, geopolitical strife in the middle-east, relations with Russia and the Democratic Republic of North Korea’s sabre rattling, it would seem that we are bound for upheaval of the likes not seen in generations. Who better to continue to cultivate this anxiety but the media? In its compelling, relentless reporting of up-to-the-minute scandal and conspiracy, in addition to its sensationalizing of current events, is it any wonder why more people just don’t...

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